The continuation of the Israel–Iran war has made the political situation in the region increasingly complex. It is unrealistic to assume the war will bring immediate consequences or prompt rapid regime change. That said, this war certainly affects our region—and unfortunately, the impacts are far from positive. The Islamic Republic, which has long sought to export its ideology and has organized proxy political and ideological structures through this effort, has made South and West Asia tense and vulnerable. Yet the bitter truth is that the current war will not produce any better outcomes than those already prevailing in our region. Historical experience shows that foreign‑instigated wars not only fail to improve internal conditions but also play a major role in expanding crises.
Regional conflicts demonstrate that poor countries suffer the most compared to more stable states. Moreover, countries suffering from crises of legitimacy or political and social acceptance are the first to fall victim to regional wars. Sadly, Afghanistan is a country plagued by economic poverty, political illegitimacy, and political crises. For this reason, Iran’s war will have direct consequences for our country. Below, we examine the fundamental components of these impacts.
Social crisis
Iran has hosted around five million Afghan citizens as migrants. This vast group, already suffering from lack of legal or political protection during the war in Iran, now faces a compounded disaster. They find no support or refuge. Additionally, Iran’s worsening economy due to the war will directly affect this large social group. Some of them will be forced to flee the war and return to Afghanistan—a place where no one is waiting for them. Furthermore, crises in housing, employment, and social cohesion will cast a bleak shadow over this large group en route or back in Afghanistan. The absence of a functional government in Afghanistan will undermine migration diplomacy, eventually turning this hardship into a social crisis. Given the current drastic reduction in economic resources for humanitarian organizations, the chance of receiving aid is extremely slim.
Political confusion
For nearly four years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been one of the key supporters of the Taliban’s de facto administration. Yet Iran has never viewed the Taliban as a fully trustworthy entity. Tehran is well aware that the Taliban have no faith in the doctrine of velayat‑e faqih and even seek its weakening in Afghanistan. The ongoing war, which has diminished Iran’s international credibility to its lowest point, leaves no hope for improved future cooperation for the Taliban from these contentious neighbors. Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding Iran’s future may free the Taliban from obligations to Tehran—and even encourage them to consider deals with intelligence agencies that operate against it.
Economic impacts
Iran is one of Afghanistan’s most important sources for foodstuffs and other essential commodities, including oil and gas. The war in Iran has sharply increased prices for these goods domestically and for exports to other regional countries. Naturally, Afghanistan, as the poorest country in the region, will be significantly affected. Already, the prices of food and fuel imported from Iran have risen substantially. Because Afghanistan lacks active supply chain structures and secure fuel storage facilities, price fluctuations in Iran directly impact the Afghan market. Another reason for Afghanistan’s market dependence on Iran’s economy is the influx of Iranian goods through legal and illicit channels. The war will disrupt both formal trade and smuggling routes into Afghanistan, further worsening poverty and increasing hardship for the poor.
Ideological effects
In the 47 years since the revolution that brought Iran’s religious leaders to power, the Islamic Republic has sought to export its revolution to other countries. Iran aimed to exert deep influence in regional nations through its political, intelligence, and military structures. To this end, it established affiliated parties and think tanks and supported them comprehensively. These groups began to function like soldiers and loyalists of the velayat‑e faqih across our region. Alongside countries such as Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, Afghanistan became a significant focus for Iran’s ideological agenda. Some Shiite‑Islamist parties with jihadi backgrounds in Afghanistan were actively engaged in representing the interests of the velayat‑e faqih here. Over the past 25 years, the Islamic Republic also established and supported ideological promotion institutions in Kabul and major Afghan cities. But the ongoing war in Iran has caused a crisis of confidence and direction among many Iranian proxies in Afghanistan. This large cadre—active within and beyond Afghanistan—is now turning into a major problem for both their own futures and Afghan society.
Security implications
If the war in Iran becomes prolonged, regional security will be further damaged. And should the war result in regime change in Iran, political and security stability will not be easy to establish—and regional insecurity will harm our region. A crucial security concern is the fate of a large number of security personnel affiliated with the Iranian regime. These forces will not remain dormant and are likely to contribute to insecurity. Furthermore, many jihadist and militant groups, including al‑Qaeda and jihadist Shia factions, are active in Iran. The question arises: where will these groups go to continue their activities? They will undoubtedly choose areas beyond Western or Russian oversight—such as the uncontrolled border regions between Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran. Experience shows these areas are strategically and tactically favorable sanctuaries for informal armed groups. It is here that Afghanistan will again face a significant security crisis as a result of this war.
Geopolitical impacts
Although the Islamic Republic of Iran has never been a strong neighbor to Afghanistan since Khomeini’s rise to power, the reality is that this political system provided relatively more stability compared to Pakistan. This relative stability meant that war across the western border with Iran was less likely to spill into Afghanistan than along the southern and eastern borders with Pakistan. Now, however, the ongoing war will have significant geopolitical impacts on Afghanistan. Growing insecurity and eroding trust along the western border complicate the strategy for resolving Afghanistan’s crisis, trapped between two unstable neighbors—Iran and Pakistan. Furthermore, regional strategic rivalries involving India, China, and Russia will add layers of complexity to Afghanistan’s geopolitics. Central Asian nations, witnessing Afghanistan’s deepening instability, will seek to avoid being drawn into its geopolitical crisis—leading to further isolation of Afghanistan.
It must be noted that the war in Iran will also bring unfortunate cultural consequences. However, if this war inspires the Iranian people to choose a better path—one based on legitimate social aspirations—it could pave the way for establishing a national, democratic state governed by the rule of law. The creation of such a national, law‑governed, democratic Iran—a major power in our geographical region—would yield positive social, political, economic, and cultural effects.
Malek Setiz is international human right, international law and international relations expert. He is a writer and global policy analyst, and researcher.
The views expressed in opinion pieces published on Amu’s website are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of the outlet.
