An escalation of tensions in the Middle East could push up to 2.3 million additional people in Afghanistan into food insecurity, the World Food Program warned in a new report, citing rising fuel prices, trade disruptions and growing pressure on humanitarian operations.
The report examines the impact of the regional crisis that began in late February and says its effects are increasingly being felt in vulnerable countries, including Afghanistan, where millions were already struggling with hunger and economic hardship before the latest shock.
According to the WFP, Afghanistan could see up to 2.3 million additional people become food insecure if the crisis persists and border disruptions continue, adding to the 13.8 million people who were already food insecure before the latest escalation.
The agency said the crisis is generating “significant spillovers” through fuel and food price increases, income shocks and trade disruptions, which are compounding existing vulnerabilities and eroding households’ ability to afford basic necessities.
Afghanistan remains particularly exposed because of its dependence on regional trade routes. According to the report, the country relies on Pakistan for about 60 percent of its exports and humanitarian supply chains, while roughly 60 percent of exports and 50 percent of imports are linked to Iran.
The report estimates that 17.4 million people—about 36 percent of the assessed population—are facing severe hunger in Afghanistan in 2026. Of those, 12.7 million are experiencing crisis-level food insecurity and 4.7 million are facing emergency levels of hunger.
The WFP said disruptions to regional trade and transport routes have already affected humanitarian operations.
According to the report, external transport costs for WFP operations in Afghanistan have increased by between 2.5 and five times since the onset of the crisis. Delivery times that previously averaged around 10 days have stretched to as long as 75 days when aid agencies are forced to use alternative corridors.
The agency warned that rising delivery costs and supply chain disruptions are putting additional strain on humanitarian operations at a time when funding is already falling.
A chart in the report shows that WFP’s funding gap for Afghanistan has widened sharply in recent years and is projected to reach 94 percent in 2026.
At the global level, WFP said it expects to assist 1.5 million fewer people than originally planned this year because of rising operational costs and funding constraints. If the conflict continues for another six months, more than 9 million people worldwide could lose assistance.
The report also warns that the risks extend beyond food security.
“The combination of a new major economic shock, a historic decline in foreign aid and a global economic growth rate that is insufficient to reduce extreme poverty represents a deeply concerning development for many countries,” the agency said.
WFP said the effects of the Middle East crisis are expected to intensify in the coming months, even if regional tensions ease, as higher fuel costs, disrupted supply chains and reduced purchasing power continue to ripple through fragile economies such as Afghanistan’s.
