KABUL, Afghanistan — Afghanistan is facing mounting food security challenges amid significantly below-average rainfall, warming temperatures, and deteriorating crop conditions, according to a new climate report by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, or FEWS NET, a U.S.-funded initiative that monitors global food insecurity risks.
The report, produced in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey, NOAA, and other agencies, shows that from October 2024 through April 2025, national precipitation levels were 40 percent below the 40-year average, with major deficits in the north and west threatening both subsistence agriculture and broader food supply chains.
From October 2024 through April 2025, national precipitation levels were 40 percent below the 40-year average, with many regions experiencing cumulative rainfall deficits of more than 50 percent, especially in the northern and western provinces. The report warns that these deficits have severely affected winter wheat crops, which are in their flowering and grain-filling stages, and pose a threat to spring planting.
“Low precipitation has delayed planting, reduced germination, and increased moisture stress across rainfed areas,” the report stated. “Most winter wheat crops in the northwest are currently under moderate to severe stress.”
The snowpack across the country is also critically low. The snow water equivalent (SWE) — a key indicator for future irrigation and hydropower — is 40 to 60 percent below normal in major basins. These conditions threaten summer irrigation supplies, particularly in provinces dependent on glacial runoff.
Temperature anomalies are compounding the situation. April temperatures were 2 to 4 degrees Celsius above average, accelerating evapotranspiration and reducing already strained soil moisture. Forecasts for May and June predict continued above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall, raising further alarms for agricultural productivity and pasture conditions.
Vegetation health, as tracked by satellite NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), shows a sharp decline in rangeland quality across much of the country. Grazing areas in provinces such as Badghis, Ghor, and Faryab are significantly below the 5-year average, suggesting poor prospects for livestock feed availability through the summer.
Food prices remain volatile. While national prices of wheat flour and rice have held steady, the cost of essential goods has risen.
According to the report, as of April 2025, cooking oil prices rose by 18 percent year-on-year, salt prices increased by 22 percent and animal feed prices climbed by 12 percent.
At the same time, the Afghani appreciated by 2.5 percent against the U.S. dollar in March and April, which may offer some short-term relief for import-dependent markets. However, this has done little to offset the broader inflationary pressure on rural households.
The humanitarian implications are stark. The United Nations estimates that 23.7 million people — over half the population — are in need of assistance, with 3.4 million children under age five suffering from acute malnutrition.
The report also emphasized that Afghanistan’s climatic instability is consistent with broader regional trends, likely exacerbated by climate change. While ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) conditions are expected to remain neutral through mid-2025, historical data links La Niña phases — expected to return later this year — to heightened drought risk in South and Central Asia.
“Sustained dryness, high temperatures, and low snowpack have converged to place Afghanistan’s food and water systems under severe strain,” the report concluded. “Without immediate mitigation, both crop and livestock sectors are likely to suffer significant losses.”
The monitoring initiative is supported by FEWS NET, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NOAA, and the Climate Hazards Center.
