A new analysis says workers in half of Afghanistan’s provinces struggle to afford basic food staples, with several regions facing both severe hunger and weak purchasing power.
More than 11 million people in Afghanistan are projected to face crisis-level food insecurity this year, while workers across much of the country continue to struggle to afford basic food staples, according to a new report by Data for Afghanistan, a US-based research organization.
The report found that more than 11 million people are expected to face IPC Phase 3 or higher food insecurity, categorized as “crisis,” “emergency” or “catastrophe” levels, between April and September 2026.
Nine provinces — Badakhshan, Balkh, Bamyan, Daykundi, Faryab, Ghor, Jawzjan, Kunar and Sar-e-Pul — have at least 40 percent of their food-insecure populations in IPC Phase 3 or worse, making them among the country’s most vulnerable regions.
Jawzjan recorded the highest share of severe food insecurity, with half of its food-insecure population projected to face crisis-level conditions or worse. Faryab, Daykundi and Ghor each recorded 45 percent, while Bamyan, Balkh, Sar-e-Pul, Kunar and Badakhshan stood at 40 percent.
The report also found that food affordability remains a major challenge across Afghanistan.
Using a measure known as Flour Purchasing Power, which calculates how many kilograms of low-quality wheat flour an unskilled laborer can buy with a day’s wages, researchers found a national median of 10.2 kilograms per day. Seventeen of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces fell below that threshold, indicating weaker purchasing power among low-income workers.
Nuristan recorded the lowest purchasing power in the country, where a day’s wage could buy only 7.1 kilograms of flour. Other provinces with relatively weak purchasing power included Samangan, Kunar, Uruzgan, Wardak, Paktika and Faryab.
At the opposite end of the scale, Nimroz recorded the strongest purchasing power, with a day’s wage buying 16.1 kilograms of flour. Kabul, Baghlan and Sar-e-Pul also ranked among the strongest-performing provinces.
The report identified five provinces — Balkh, Daykundi, Faryab, Jawzjan and Kunar — as facing a particularly severe combination of high food insecurity and below-median purchasing power. Researchers described these provinces as experiencing both elevated hunger risks and limited household ability to purchase basic food items.
Food prices also varied significantly across the country.
The national median price of low-quality wheat flour stood at 29.3 afghanis per kilogram in May, while high-quality flour averaged 31.7 afghanis. In Nuristan, where purchasing power was weakest, low-quality flour sold for about 35 afghanis per kilogram, among the highest prices recorded nationwide.
The findings come as Afghanistan continues to face economic pressures despite signs of modest growth. The World Bank recently estimated economic growth at 4.8 percent in 2025 but warned that rapid population growth, rising inflation and declining international aid are eroding living standards and household incomes.
Humanitarian agencies have repeatedly warned that millions of Afghans remain vulnerable to hunger and poverty as the country grapples with unemployment, climate-related shocks, and the return of large numbers of migrants from neighboring countries.
Data for Afghanistan said its analysis is based on food-price monitoring by the World Food Programme and food-security projections produced through the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification system, one of the world’s most widely used measures of hunger and humanitarian need.
The report’s findings suggest that while food remains available in markets across much of the country, affordability, particularly for low-income households dependent on daily wages, continues to be a major obstacle to food security.
