Rising tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan could escalate into a broader crisis or armed confrontation in 2026, the US-based Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) warned in a new report.
In its annual Preventive Priorities Survey, the CFR cited cross-border militant attacks as the main driver of strained relations between the two neighbours. While the report did not classify the risk of conflict as “high priority,” it said an escalation was neither unlikely nor inevitable.
The survey flagged the risk of renewed armed clashes linked to increased cross-border militant activity, noting that tensions have periodically spilled into military confrontations along the shared frontier.
“For the first time, the possibility of widespread conflict in Afghanistan did not appear in a PPS survey, though the risk of further cross-border clashes with Pakistan was included,” the report said.
Relations between the Taliban and Islamabad have deteriorated in October amid repeated accusations by Pakistan that Afghan soil is being used by militants, particularly the Pakistani Taliban, to launch attacks. The Taliban have denied the allegations, saying Pakistan’s security problems are an internal matter.
“India, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Iran should all sit together and talk. The message should be that we respect each other’s freedom and engage through dialogue,” said Mahmood Khan Achakzai, leader of Pakistan’s Awami National Party.
The tensions have at times led to border closures and armed incidents, disrupting trade and movement between the two countries. Despite recent conciliatory statements by senior officials on both sides, key border crossings remain closed and underlying disputes unresolved.
Pakistan has long urged the Taliban to take action against militant groups operating near the border, while the Taliban have called for dialogue and rejected claims of harbouring armed groups.
The CFR report said continued instability along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border could have wider regional implications if not addressed through sustained diplomatic engagement.
