WASHINGTON — The Islamic State’s Khorasan branch, or ISIS-K, remains the most capable and dangerous faction of the extremist group, with growing ambitions to strike targets in the West, including the United States, according to the U.S. intelligence community’s 2025 annual threat assessment.
The report, released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, warns that despite suffering setbacks in the Middle East, the Islamic State continues to pose a global threat through its most aggressive branches. Among them, ISIS-K in South Asia is deemed the most capable of launching external attacks.
“ISIS-K’s mass-casualty attacks in Russia and Iran in 2024, along with the arrests of its supporters in Europe and the United States, highlight its expanding reach beyond South Asia,” the report states. It adds that ISIS-K continues to inspire individuals to conduct attacks abroad and has demonstrated the ability to infiltrate the U.S. homeland.
The report cites several high-profile incidents, including a New Year’s Day stabbing in New Orleans linked to ISIS propaganda and the arrest of an Afghan national in October who allegedly plotted an election-day attack in the United States in the name of ISIS.
While the report does not explicitly name Afghanistan as a current operational base, the group’s South Asia operations—long associated with sanctuaries in Afghanistan—remain a core concern. This aligns with repeated warnings from the United Nations and international watchdogs that ISIS-K maintains an active presence in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.
In South Asia, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has focused its recent operations on attacking the Pakistani government. However, the U.S. intelligence assessment cautions that the group’s capabilities, long-standing ties with al-Qaeda, and past support for anti-American plots make it a persistent concern for future threats to U.S. interests.
“Although TTP has not recently targeted the United States, its history and connections to al-Qaeda continue to warrant close monitoring,” the report says.
Al-Qaeda, for its part, retains a global network of affiliates with a continued intent to target the United States and its allies. According to the assessment, the group’s leadership has attempted to leverage global conflicts, including the war in Gaza, to stir anti-American sentiment and inspire attacks. Its affiliate in Yemen, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), recently relaunched its Inspire magazine, issuing bomb-making instructions and calling for attacks against Jewish and Western targets.
The report does not mention the Taliban directly in connection with international terrorist activity this year, a notable departure from the 2024 assessment, which referenced Afghanistan and the Taliban multiple times. However, concerns persist among Western analysts that Taliban-controlled territory provides a permissive environment for extremist groups such as ISIS-K, al-Qaeda, and TTP.
Security analysts noted that the shift in U.S. intelligence language may reflect a recalibration of policy as the United States explores indirect engagement with Taliban authorities. Some, however, view it as an omission that could downplay the threat of extremist resurgence in Afghanistan.
“The U.S. appears to be repositioning its threat lens away from the Taliban, despite clear indications that multiple terror groups continue to operate freely in Afghanistan,” said Bismillah Taban, a Kabul-based security analyst. “This could be part of a broader diplomatic calculus.”
The report underscores that ISIS, despite losing its territorial caliphate, remains the world’s largest Islamic terrorist group and has adapted by relying on its most operationally capable branches, particularly ISIS-K, to sustain global momentum.
“The group’s resilience, propaganda outreach, and capacity to inspire and enable attacks make it a priority threat to U.S. homeland security,” the report concludes.
