In an in-depth conversation with Karim Amini, Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, shares his insights on Afghanistan’s current situation, the United States’ evolving policy toward the country, and the potential impact of regional and global dynamics.
Below is the full transcription of the interview.
Karim Amini: Mr. Kugelman, welcome to the show.
Kugelman: Thank you. it’s great to be here.
Amini: Thank you. Let’s start from 2021. Has the US forgotten Afghanistan after 2021 as the US did abandon Afghanistan after the fall of Najibullah’s government and the rise of the Mujahidin in the 90s?
Kugelman: Well, unfortunately, here in Washington, we really do not hear as much about Afghanistan as we had when US forces were there in Afghanistan, US goals and interests have become more narrowly focused since the US withdrawal. They mainly focus around issues like humanitarian assistance, as well as trying to focus on freeing Americans that are still held captive in Afghanistan, there has been an attempt to focus on the issue of women’s rights and women’s education, the fact that women do not have a right to education Afghanistan, this is very concerning and has been very concerning to the US officials, but haven’t really been able to make much progress on addressing this issue. And as a result, I would argue that it’s really fallen to others, to Afghan diaspora members in the United States, as well as advocates, human rights advocates, women’s rights advocates, others trying to bring more attention to Afghanistan. It’s fallen to individuals and groups like those to ensure that Afghanistan stays front and center. But indeed, Washington hasn’t forgotten about Afghanistan, but it certainly does not focus on it nearly as much as it used to.
Amini: Right, but in your views, Mr. Kugelman, why do you think we have ended up here? What do you see as the main reason? It was because the US troops left Afghanistan, or the country has been dropped from the US priorities.
Kugelman: Well, several issues. One is certainly the fact that US forces are no longer in Afghanistan, and US policy toward Afghanistan for so many years was seen through the lens of the war – the US-led war in Afghanistan – so with no US troops there that, I think, you know, removes one of the big frames through which us policymakers looked at Afghanistan. The other reason why, you know, we don’t have so much of a focus on Afghanistan in Washington anymore is that the Taliban returned to power. And the Taliban is a group that has not been formally recognized by the US government or any government, of course, and it’s a group that has many leaders that have been sanctioned by the US for many years. So, the US doesn’t really have many options for engagement with the Taliban leadership, and that essentially means that there can’t be much of a US policy in Afghanistan.
Amini: Yes, but now a new chapter is going to be opened. What do you think with the Trump’s return, will Afghanistan regain attention in the in the White House?
Kugelman: You know, it should be very interesting, because the people that Trump has picked to join his cabinet, I would argue, that some of them disagree with his position on Afghanistan. I would argue that someone like Mike Waltz, the incoming National Security Advisor, has always been a very strong critic of the Taliban. He, I think, did not want US forces to leave Afghanistan. He would not want to engage with the Taliban. He would want pressure campaigns. But Trump himself, you know, as you know, I mean, he was the one that pushed for a negotiation with the Taliban to get US troops out of Afghanistan. And I think that Trump might be more willing to look to opportunities to engage with the Taliban. He may even look favorably upon Taliban efforts to try to fight Daesh, which is, you know, has been present in Afghanistan for quite some time. So, I think for me, one of the big questions about Afghanistan policy in the second Trump administration is, how these would appear to be, these different views within those likely to serve in the Trump administration, will impact the actual policy toward Afghanistan?
Amini: Yeah, you have spoken of the possibility that Trump might support the Taliban in the fight against ISIS. In your view, what might Trump ask of the Taliban, especially since the Taliban claimed that there is not a single ISIS member in Afghanistan?
Kugelman: Right, which is clearly not true. Look, I think that if we’re thinking what the Trump administration’s policy in Afghanistan will look like, I think that the issue of terrorism concerns will probably be one of the main focal points that gets the attention of the administration. Donald Trump, when he was president the first time, he was very focused on combating terrorism, and he liked to say that he had defeated ISIS, and he sorely knows that this group is present in Afghanistan. And not only that, you know the of course, it’s ISIS-K that’s in Afghanistan, but this is a threat that has become larger. And Mike Waltz himself in a recent interview, was talking about his concerns about Islamic State and its presence in Afghanistan, and the threat that it projects beyond Afghanistan. So, I don’t know what Trump will think about the Taliban and his own efforts to try to combat Islamic State Khorasan, but given what Trump has said about the Taliban before, given that he was willing to engage with it, he seemed to brag at one point on the presidential campaign trail about his conversation that he that with Mullah Baradar, this suggests to me that he might be willing to indirectly acknowledge, at least that the Taliban are doing a good job countering Islamic State Khorasan. Even the current administration has sort of acknowledged that the Taliban are being helpful vis a vis the Islamic State Khorasan, but someone like Mike Waltz, I don’t think that he would have any desire to trust that the Taliban could go after a terrorist group like IS-K. So, we’ll see how that plays out.
Amini: Yes, as you mentioned it, Mike Waltz, Trump’s National Security Adviser said during a meeting, referring to Mr. Khalilzad, that elimination of a terrorist group with a terrorist group is a big mistake. Do you think that Trump will make a “big mistake” by supporting the Taliban in the fight against ISIS?
Kugelman: I mean, I think it depends. If we’re talking about potential US support for Taliban efforts to counter IS-K, what type of support that would look like? If we’re simply talking about rhetorical support, if we’re talking about public expressions of support for what the Taliban are doing to combat IS-K, that would be one thing. But, if President Trump, I don’t think this is likely. But if Donald Trump were to actually think about providing material assistance to the Taliban, you know, whether we’re talking about arms or anything like that, that would be extremely risky and extremely dangerous. I don’t think that Trump would do that. Another issue to keep in mind here is that for Trump, his focus will be on the US. You know, what does this mean for the US? How does this threaten the US? I think that for him, the biggest concern with Islamic State Khorasan will be going after the group and the broader Islamic State group. His main focus will be targeting where it threatens the US and US interests. And it appears that IS-K has been able to develop some capacities and even a presence in areas beyond Afghanistan, and that might be an area where Donald Trump would want to focus on more. If he believes that IS-K in Afghanistan is not posing a direct threat to the US or US interests, he may be less inclined to want to think about how the US might be able to support the Taliban in those efforts. I mean, he knows that IS-K has claimed attacks in Iran and Russia. There had been some IS-K plots that have been foiled in Europe and even in the United States over the last few years. That’s what he’s going to be most concerned about.
Amini: Counterterrorism might be one part of the US strategy for Afghanistan, but on humanitarian issues, women rights issues, political issues, where do you think the new US policy will stand? Will he continue Biden’s Afghanistan policy?
Kugelman: I think that there will be some continuity in the sense that you’ll have a limited approach to Afghanistan from the Trump administration. I think that Trump will definitely want to maintain a focus on, you know, the small number of Americans that are still being held captive in Afghanistan. You know, he’s someone that always wants to be seen as that US leader, that can get Americans out of harm’s way abroad. So that will remain a focus. I think that humanitarian support will be a continued priority for US policy in Afghanistan in the Trump era, though, you know, there has been some speculation and reports that there might be cuts in funding to USAID, which has been, you know, historically, a key player in providing humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan, so that could be that could be impacted. And you know, indeed the focus on terrorism risks and counterterrorism that had been something that the Biden administration had focused on. We know that there was that operation that eliminated Zawahiri several years ago, but I think that where you’d see the main difference between the two presidents is when it comes to the issue of women’s rights. I just don’t think that we will see Trump’s administration emphasize that issue as much as the Biden administration. Though, again, there could be some disagreements and views here. I think that someone like a Mike Waltz, or assuming he’s confirmed, Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, I think they would want to maintain the focus on these values issues like the horrific state of women and women’s education in Afghanistan. Trump himself, though, may want to focus on issues that relate more directly to US interests, like the other issues that I mentioned.
Amini: For Afghans, there is an Afghanistan of yesterday – the past twenty years. There is an Afghanistan of today – ruled by the Taliban. There might be an Afghanistan of tomorrow – a combination of yesterday and today under some arrangements. Do you think the US might have a vision for that?
Kugelman: I don’t think that the Trump administration will go back to the previous Afghanistan, so to speak. I mean Trump, of course, as you know, had never been comfortable having a military presence in Afghanistan. So, the notion of any type of possible return of the US military to Afghanistan, that’s completely not going to happen. And likewise, I think that Trump, much like Biden, accept that the Taliban are there to stay. So, I don’t think that the Trump administration will have any interest in supporting potential resistance, including armed resistance to the Taliban, which, as I understand it today, is relatively weak. So, I don’t think that we’re going to see a redux of how things were several decades ago, where you start to see the US and other outside players, for that matter, supporting anti-Taliban groups. So, I think the Trump administration will accept Afghanistan for what it is, a country where the Taliban has returned, but also a country where there is no war after, you know, more than 40 straight years of war. And I think that’s something that that the administration will be comfortable with, though indeed the new Afghanistan, with the return of the Taliban has of course, produced new developments that will be concerning to this administration, including the rights situation, then the situation with women, the dire economic situation, the dire humanitarian situation that will be concerning for the administration. But it’s not something that would want to make the US change its approach, I think at the end of the day, it will accept Afghanistan as it is today, particularly with the Taliban back in power.
Amini: Thank you. Many argue that humanitarian aid is strengthening the Taliban. You think Trump will stop it? Or he will fully engage with the Taliban and recognize their rule?
Kugelman: I think it’s highly unlikely that the Trump administration would formally recognize the Taliban regime. No country wants to be the first to do it, and it certainly would not be the US. And I just think that Trump would conclude that there’s not enough at stake for US interests in Afghanistan to warrant a bold move like that, to actually recognize the Taliban. So, I don’t think that that will happen. In terms of humanitarian assistance, I think that we’ll see. I think the bigger question here is, what will the Trump administration’s broader approach to humanitarian assistance be? I mean, will he want to cut humanitarian assistance around the world? I think that would be a big mistake, given that you have so many complex humanitarian emergencies, certainly in Afghanistan, which unfortunately tends to be overlooked, given that you have others in Ukraine and, of course, in Gaza and in many other parts of the world. I think that his administration will continue to provide humanitarian assistance, though we might see the amounts come down, and it is notable that Trump recently was publicly critical of what he described as US humanitarian aid being essentially stolen by the Taliban. So, he may not want to risk that, but at the same time, I’m not sure that will invest so much attention on Afghanistan that this would be an issue that would concern him in a big way. His administration might be okay with continuing with the status quo.
Amini: From the regional’s aspect of the matter, would an increased China-Taliban engagement create some interest in the Trump administration to look into Afghanistan more closely?
Kugelman: I think when we look at the question of how the Trump administration will want to engage on the Afghanistan issue, we need to keep in mind the geopolitical state of play, China was relatively slow to try to engage with the new Taliban leadership once it came back. But more recently, we’ve actually seen some significant developments. The Chinese government signed an energy deal with the Taliban. There’s been some high-level engagement. Given that Trump will look at the world through the lens of competition with China, perhaps the fact that China is now engaging fairly heavily in Afghanistan, would be something that would get the attention of the administration. I don’t think that we’re going to see the Trump administration view Afghanistan and a new battleground for great power competition, just because the administration and Trump himself will not want to be active on Afghanistan for so many reasons, but I do think that this is one way that we can expect Afghanistan to stay on the radar, so to speak, in Washington in the Trump era, because it appears that China is starting to do more, engage more on higher levels with the Taliban leadership.
