A United Nations report has said that the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has remained “the largest terrorist group” in Afghanistan, with an estimated strength of 6,000 to 6,500 fighters.
The report, citing a member state, expressed concerns that increased collaboration between the TTP and al-Qaida could transform the TTP into an extraregional threat. “Al-Qaida’s support of TTP includes the sharing of Afghan fighters for its tashkils (military formations) and training camps in Afghanistan,” the report stated.
Training provided by al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent has reportedly led to the TTP shifting tactics and launching high-profile attacks against hard targets. Additionally, one source noted the involvement of an individual connected to Sirajuddin Haqqani in the transfer of weapons to the TTP and the arrangement for the release of ISIL-K prisoners on the condition they join the TTP.
The report detailed how the Taliban exerts pressure on the TTP through funding, allegedly providing 3.5 million Afghanis ($50,500) monthly to TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud. The Taliban also reportedly directed Mehsud to secure additional revenue from donors. Despite this, the Taliban remain concerned that excessive pressure might drive the TTP towards collaboration with ISIL-K. Mehsud is believed to maintain a backdoor line of communication with ISIL-K to keep his options open.
The U.N. Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team reported that a Taliban commander is responsible for directing Afghan fighters into Pakistan. The Taliban’s policy towards the TTP shifted in mid-2023, with the General Directorate of Intelligence facilitating three new guesthouses in Kabul for TTP leaders and issuing passes to senior TTP figures to facilitate movement and immunity from arrest, as well as weapons permits. This more positive relationship aims to ensure continued alliance with the Taliban and prevent defections to Daesh.
On March 5, 2024, Noor Wali Mehsud claimed to have recently met Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, prompting immediate denials from the Taliban. The report also noted that the Taliban’s acting Interior Minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani, appears to have been sidelined as a mediator between Pakistan and the TTP. In January 2024, the Taliban governor in Kandahar, Mullah Shirin, a loyalist of Akhundzada, led a delegation to Pakistan for discussions.
The report concluded that over two dozen terrorist groups still operate in Afghanistan, enjoying freedom of movement under the de facto authorities with oversight from the General Directorate of Intelligence. Despite some constraints, the relationship between the Taliban and al-Qaida and its affiliated groups remains close, with Afghanistan continuing to be considered friendly territory by these groups.
