Afghanistan’s economy is projected to grow by 2.6 percent in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook released this week. This forecast places Afghanistan near the bottom of regional growth expectations, reflecting both internal economic constraints and the broader global slowdown.
The IMF’s global growth projection for 2025 stands at 2.8 percent, the lowest since 2020 and the second-weakest figure since the 2009 financial crisis. The report attributes this deceleration to heightened trade tensions, rising tariffs, and policy uncertainty, particularly involving major economies such as the United States and China.
Within Central Asia, Afghanistan’s projected growth rate lags behind several neighboring countries. For instance, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are expected to grow by 6.8 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively, while Uzbekistan is forecasted at 5.9 percent. Even Turkmenistan, with a projected growth of 2.3 percent, is only slightly behind Afghanistan.
The IMF anticipates a modest improvement in Afghanistan’s economic performance in 2026, projecting a growth rate of 3.4 percent. However, this remains below the regional average and underscores the challenges facing the country’s economy.
Afghanistan’s economic outlook is constrained by several factors, including limited access to international financial systems, reduced foreign aid, and restrictions on women’s participation in the workforce. These issues are compounded by internal challenges such as high unemployment, food insecurity, and a fragile banking sector.
The IMF’s report emphasizes the need for structural reforms to enhance economic resilience. Recommendations include improving domestic revenue mobilization, fostering private sector development, and ensuring inclusive policies that enable broader participation in the economy.
