As the Iran-Israel tensions expand and the United States enters the conflict with airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, sources said Taliban are quietly assessing the potential consequences for Afghanistan, a country closely tied to Iran economically, politically and diplomatically.
According to multiple sources familiar with internal discussions, the Taliban’s intelligence agency and Foreign Ministry have held at least two high-level meetings in recent days to evaluate possible scenarios and the broader implications of the widening regional war. These include concerns over border security, energy imports, the fate of millions of Afghan migrants in Iran, and the disruption of trade routes.
While Taliban have publicly condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran, describing them as a violation of Iranian sovereignty, sources said that Taliban officials in Kabul are increasingly concerned about the stability of their western neighbor, with whom they share deep political ties and a $3.1 billion annual trade relationship.
Trade disruptions and economic risk
Iran is one of Afghanistan’s most important commercial and transit partners. Goods flow through Iran’s Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports, while the Khaf-Herat railway has become a critical logistics corridor. But since the onset of hostilities, economic ties have been under strain.
A member of Afghanistan’s Chamber of Commerce and Investment told Amu that oil imports from Iran have been fully suspended and non-oil goods have slowed sharply. Key Iranian exports to Afghanistan include fuel, liquefied gas, construction materials, agricultural goods, and raw materials for factories.
“Imports have already declined. If this war drags on, it will hit us hard,” the official said.
Migrants in limbo
Beyond economic concerns, the Taliban are also watching anxiously as the situation unfolds for the estimated six million Afghan migrants living in Iran — many undocumented or semi-registered. According to Iran’s Ministry of Interior, this population includes roughly two million undocumented migrants, two million documented refugees, and two million counted in census efforts.
With Iran under increasing strain and domestic tensions rising, Afghan officials worry about the possibility of forced returns or deteriorating conditions for those still in the country. Both humanitarian organizations and Taliban authorities have warned of the potential for large-scale displacement if the situation worsens.
Shift in regional aviation
Even as political anxieties rise, Afghanistan has experienced a sudden and dramatic increase in air traffic. According to data from Flightradar24, the number of overflights through Afghanistan’s airspace has jumped from 50 per day in May to more than 280 flights per day since June 13 — a 500 percent increase — as commercial airlines reroute around Iranian airspace.
The increase in overflights offers Afghanistan a potential source of transit revenue but also raises airspace management and security concerns at a time when the country’s civil aviation infrastructure remains limited.
The Taliban’s relationship with Iran has strengthened notably in recent years. Even before taking power in 2021, Taliban leaders made frequent trips to Tehran. Since then, both sides have exchanged ambassadors, and Iran has supported the Taliban’s inclusion in regional forums, even as it quietly navigates tensions with the group over water rights and border issues.
While the Taliban have refrained from directly aligning with Iran in the current conflict, they have made clear their political sympathies.
